Narratives of Possible AI Futures: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Presented by Fredrik Dahl, Senior Research Scientist at the Norwegian Computing Center

Abstract

People have different views on the current level of intelligence in AI systems, the likely speed of further progress, and the societal impact AI may have in the future. This has contributed to a polarized debate, with narratives ranging from “AI will give us some useful tools”, via “Many jobs will disappear” and “We will all be rich”, to “AI will take over and kill us all”. In this presentation, I will map the main narratives about AI risk and benefit using a railway metaphor in which human extinction is the final destination. The different stops along the way represent arguments for more favourable outcomes. The goal is not to argue for the likelihood of any particular scenario, but to structure the discussion of these narratives in a systematic way.